Politicians fight term limits with ... Sanctioned Murder?

When a movement to limit terms springs up, politicians and special interests resort to nearly every trick in the book to stop it. This usually involves sending out teams of lawyers.

A new mystery thriller, Sanctioned Murder by Glenn Trust, tells the story of a threatened incumbency in Georgia sending out teams of hit men.

When the murders start occuring, the investigators -- a team of police officers and detectives including George Mackey, the hero of Trust's first novel -- can't connect the dots. There is a clearly a political twist, but the victims seem to be of different parties, wildly different views and cultural backgrounds. They know also that there is interest high up, as the governor's officer creates a task force early on to, it seems, monitor the investigation more than assist it.

As the subtitle of the book (The Term Limits Conspiracy) hints, the investigators find the connection and then the clues keep leading them higher and deeper into the establishment.

Sanctioned Murder is another of the growing genre of term limits thrillers (let's just pretend this exists, OK?) which includes Vince Flynn's Term Limits and Erne Lewis' An Act of Self Defense.

It is an easy read, a page-turner with lots of gunplay. However, I am not sure I am comfortable with the fate of the editor of the term limits blog at the center of the conspiracy. I'll try not to take it personally.

There's still time to save Arkansas GOP from term limits debacle

As reported earlier, the anti-term limits measure to appear on the Arkansas ballot in 2014 would appear to a boon to Republicans who aim to protect their incumbents and solidify the GOP's state legislative majority. No doubt this will be used as a selling point to the party's hyper-partisans.

This is short-sighted. Thoughtful Arkansas Republicans should call for their leaders to take this awful measure off the ballot while there is still time.  It is likely this measure will backfire on the party, hurting fundraising and morale going into the 2014 elections, reducing the chances of achieving important policy goals and setting the party up for a difficult future.

Straining party resources

Term limits are popular with large majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents. But it is no secret that fundraising to defend term limits in Arkansas -- where the movement to impose term limits originally had a GOP pedigree -- will disproportionately come from one side of the aisle. Plus, the bulk of the volunteers who work to save the popular voter-approved term limits will skew towards the GOP. Hence, money and volunteers hours will be lost to other GOP campaigns in order to battle a GOP initiative.

As the campaign to protect term limits picks up steam and party regulars get invested in it, there will necessarily be a dampening of enthusiasm for the party leaders who -- as a group -- championed this measure. How could it be otherwise?

Weakening the brand

The GOP bills itself as the state's fiscally conservative party. The party attracts fiscal conservatives to run for office and these candidates must talk the talk to primary voters and contributors if they want to advance.

As illustrated in a famous Cato Institute study at the Congressional level, Republicans tend to arrive at the capitol and more or less live up to their fiscal conservative rhetoric for a while. But after 6, 7, 8 years their spending ramps up and soon they are no longer distinguishable from the veteran spenders.

There is every reason to expect that tenured Republican legislators as a group -- who will be able to run as incumbents for their own seats for 16 years straight instead of today's six or eight -- will stray further from the fiscally conservative path.

Term limits cut both ways

Term limits cut both ways. Protecting today's incumbents from electoral competition will surely help maintain the Republican majority longer -- but not forever. But some day down the line the shoe will be on the other foot and Republicans will be in the minority in a system rigged in favor of the incumbent majority.

It is not too late to remove the measure from the 2014 ballot. Indeed, when the GOP-dominated Florida legislature voted to put a term limits attack on the ballot in 2006, they heard from their base and voted to take the measure off the ballot just in time.

The same can happen in Arkansas, and it should.

Arkansas GOP incumbents want to lock the door behind them

After Contract With America author U.S. Rep. Dick Armey (R-TX) got comfortable with his new Republican majority in the House in 1994, he famously said that "if we Republicans can straighten out the House . . . then I think maybe the nation's desire for term limits will be diminished."

In other words, now that we're in power, we don't need term limits anymore.

This is the sentiment being echoed today in Arkansas, where term limits opened elections to competition and turnover leading to the historic upending of Democratic dominance in the state legislature. Now that the door has been opened and the Republicans walked in -- culminating in 2012 with the first GOP majority in both chambers since reconstruction -- they want to shut the door behind them and lock it. Entrenched incumbency all of a sudden sounds mighty attractive.

Their scheme to get it is the anti-term limits amendment, titled the "Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency and Financial Reform Amendment," that will appear on the statewide 2014 ballot.

By the early 1990s, legislative turnover in the legislature had become among the lowest in the nation, incumbents had became statistically unbeatable and hence the legislature became stagnant, dominated by its senior class. Even as the state changed over time, the legislature didn't.

But then genuine term limits were put on the ballot by citizens via the initiative process, winning with 60 percent in 1992 and again by 70 percent in 2004. As the limits set in, pent-up demographic changes were refected at the ballot box For example, there was a pop in the number of women in the legislature. More to our point here, Republicans now had the opportunity to run for lots of open seats in competitive elections -- and they started winning them.

Today, when and if the tide turns back toward the Democrats, we can expect this will be reflected at the ballot box too. But the new anti-term limits amendment would retard the will of the people.

The essence of the amendment is to change the House term limit from six years to 16 and the Senate term limit from eight to 16, with a maximum service in the legislature of 16 years between the two. This is a return to the old regime where incumbents can -- and therefore nearly always will -- run for the same seat for over a decade and a half with all the overwhelming advantages of an incumbent running for his or her own seat.

It should not be too surprising that the amendment was also supported by Democratic incumbents who put their own political aspirations ahead of the interests of the citizenry and their own party. Truly, in the case of term limits there are two distinct opposing parties but they aren't Democrat versus Republican, they are people versus power.  Polls reflect this, with large majorities of Democrats and Republicans (and independents) supporting term limits.

Arkansas voters of all parties need to defeat this attempt by incumbent politicians to rig the system in their favor. Let's get to work.

Arkansas 'reform' just an obscurantist attack on term limits

Whereas first you don't succeed, lie lie again. That's the motto of the Arkansas state legislature, which is trying for the second time to effectively nullify the state's voter-approved term limits. This time they are stooping to obfuscation and deception get the job done.

 

Some background: By the early 1990s, legislative turnover in the legislature had become among the lowest in the nation, incumbents had became statistically unbeatable and hence the legislature became stagnant, dominated by its senior class and the special interests that supported them. The initial term limits measure was put on the ballot by citizens via the initiative process, winning with 60 percent in 1992.

The popularity of the term limits grew significantly over time. In 2004, when legislators tried to weaken the limits, 70 percent of the voters rebuffed them.

Today, Arkansas is a model for other states, with a part-time legislature meeting every other year, reasonable compensation and genuine term limits. According to the American Legislative Exchange Council, which annually compares states according to a fixed list of economic variables, Arkansas routinely ranks in the top half or even quartile of its peers.

That's fine for the citizenry, but less so for self-interested legislators who want sail back into office in uncompetitive elections for perpetuity. Legislators learned the hard way Arkansans are not going to gut term limits in an honest vote. So, this year, they voted to place the, ahem, Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency and Financial Reform Amendment on the ballot in 2014.

Notice this lofty title doesn't even mention the central point of the the bill, a provision to gut term limits by permitting legislators to spend 16 years in the House or Senate or some combination of the two. Currently, legislators are limited to six years in the House and eight in the Senate.

The amendment contains a bunch of add-ons -- some with merit and some without -- but together are intended only to bury the attack on term limits in a friendly-sounding 'reform' package.

Oh well, proponents say, term limits are being deemphasized because the popular term limits are only being tweaked a teeny-weeny bit. Currently, a legislator is permitted to serve six years in the House and then eight in the Senate for a total of 14 years. The new limit would be 16 so this is only an additional two years. Friendly pundits are already pooh-poohing this change as almost an afterthought.

But this an intentional deception. The new House term limit would now be 16 years, not six. The new term limit in the Senate will be 16 years, not eight. Today, the jump from one chamber to the other requires a competitive election in which term-limited candidate may be facing another term-limited candidate in a competitive election. This is what politicians are desperate to avoid. This is the nugget hidden in this basket of smoke.

History and current polling suggest voters are unlikely to approve this measure if they are aware of its true purpose. The pols, lobbyists and friendly press will aim to obscure. Our job must be to educate. If we do our job, the voters will take care of the rest.

Again.

Does youthful energy drive better outcomes?

 

Term limits supporters cite the importance of youthful enthusiasm, broader outside experience and new ideas that come into office with freshman legislators. Opponents often counter that the loss of specialized experience as veteran legislators leave is too high a price to pay.

 

It is interesting that such debates also swirl even among professions where term limits would not be appropriate. Take education, for instance.

It sounds plausible that losing a swath of longtime veteran teachers would hurt educational results as younger, less experienced teachers take the helm. But a new study suggests this is not the case.

 

Cornell's Maria Fitzpatrick and Michael Lovenheim published a new study that looks at the results of Illinois schools that offered early retirement incentives in the 1990s. As the number of veterans decreased, the study found that "the program did not reduce test scores; likely it increased them, with positive effects most pronounced in lower [in terms of socioeconomic status] schools."

 

Among other explanations, the blog Freakonomics suggested one reason for this result that mirrors what we see in legislatures: "Teachers that are near retirement may put forth less effort than younger teachers or may be less trained in modern, pedagogical practices."

 

That is, energy and ideas matter. Who knew?

 

(Thanks for reason.com for the heads up on this study.)

 

 

 

Argentine voters foil attack on presidential term limits

It’s not only here. Voters internationally love term limits and resent self-interested attempts of would-be tyrants to circumvent them.

The latest example: Voters in Argentina last weekend gave a resounding thumbs down to President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her plans to keep power by abolishing presidential term limits.

In the face of deteriorating economic conditions, Fernandez made her bid for 'consitutional reform' last year with all the usual pitches of professional politicians, including the need for continuity and her irreplaceable wisdom and experience.

The people weren’t fooled. In November 2012, a demonstration outside the pink presidential palace at the Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires brought hundreds of thousands of people into the streets. Their grievances were legion, but the unifying theme was opposition to the president’s arrogant grasp for power in what should be – and will be – her last two years in office.

Then, in the Aug. 11 primary elections, Fernandez's ruling party garnered only 26 percent of the nationwide vote. This is less than half of the percentage with which she was re-elected two years ago and five points less than her party's showing in the last mid-term elections. It is believed the results end any hopes of nixing constitutional term limits before the October general elections.

But the lust for power is a compulsion that demands obedience. “We're going to keep deepening this transformation, because it's our obligation," Fernandez said at a post-election rally.

Americans tell pollsters: Fire the entire Congress!



It is often noted that even though the vast majority of voters support term limits, they will also reelect their own representative over and over and over again.

This is less of a contradiction than it may appear on first glance.  Term limits are an institutional reform that affects the legislative bodies’ makeup and incentives and also who ultimately appears on ballots. That is very different than choosing between two or three candidates to fill a public post in particular election.

When voting to fill a post, voters look at the choices and pick the best one – or, in most cases, the least bad one.  In many cases, that may be the incumbent. After all, the odds are high the opponent is not a serious one.  In an environment where incumbents win their own seat in general elections some 95% of the time, serious goal-oriented people rarely run for office against them.

Hence, either incumbents go unopposed or they attract unqualified, even if well-meaning, opponents. These opponents are usually underfunded and are not even backed by their own political party. After all, with scarce resources, why would a party spend real money on unwinnable seats?

Meanwhile, the incumbent is a statistical sure thing and a great investment for special interest money and muscle.

Gerrymandering also plays a role.  In safe seats where one party dominates, the likelihood is high that voters will simply pull the lever for their party’s nominee.

Voters seem to understand this better than pundits.  In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal on July17-21, voters were asked:

"If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including your own representative, would you do this, or not?"

57% said ‘yes.'

Well, there isn’t such a place on the ballot. Instead, voters are asked to choose from a list of candidates – chosen through a flawed process skewed towards the incumbency – and they hold their noses and pull the lever once again. The old power brokers return to office and nothing ever changes. How could it?

No, the voters don’t love their incumbents. The same poll showed 83 percent of voters disapprove of Congress, a new record. Voters want competitive elections and rotation in office. They want term limits.