It is often noted that even though the vast majority of
voters support term limits, they will also reelect their own representative
over and over and over again.
This is less of a contradiction than it may appear on first
glance. Term limits are an institutional
reform that affects the legislative bodies’ makeup and incentives and also who ultimately appears on ballots. That is very
different than choosing between two or three candidates to fill a public post in particular
election.
When voting to fill a post, voters look at the choices and
pick the best one – or, in most cases, the least bad one. In many cases, that may be the incumbent. After all, the odds are high the opponent is not a serious one. In an environment where incumbents win their
own seat in general elections some 95% of the time, serious goal-oriented
people rarely run for office against them.
Hence, either incumbents go unopposed or they attract
unqualified, even if well-meaning, opponents. These opponents are usually
underfunded and are not even backed by their own political party. After all,
with scarce resources, why would a party spend real money on unwinnable seats?
Meanwhile, the incumbent is a statistical sure thing and a
great investment for special interest money and muscle.
Gerrymandering also plays a role. In safe seats where one party dominates, the likelihood
is high that voters will simply pull the lever for their party’s nominee.
Voters seem to understand this better than pundits. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal on July17-21, voters were asked:
"If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including your own representative, would you do this, or not?"
57% said ‘yes.'
Well, there isn’t such a place on the ballot. Instead,
voters are asked to choose from a list of candidates – chosen through a flawed process skewed
towards the incumbency – and they hold their noses and pull the lever once
again. The old power brokers return to office and nothing ever changes. How
could it?
No, the voters don’t love their incumbents. The same poll
showed 83 percent of voters disapprove of Congress, a new record. Voters want competitive
elections and rotation in office. They want term limits.
